November 3rd, 2010 | Uncategorized

Foley leads with 99 percent of precincts reporting

Though Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz ’83 announced this afternoon that unofficial tallies indicated that Democrat Dan Malloy would be the next governor of Connecticut, Malloy’s Republican opponent, Tom Foley of Greenwich, holds a lead of 8400 votes in the race with 99 percent of precincts reporting.

The 12 embattled precincts in Bridgeport that were kept open for an additional two hours last night after they ran out of ballots have not yet reported their results. Fairfield County, which includes Greenwich, Bridgeport and Stamford, has reported 94 percent of its results. Six of Connecticut’s seven other counties have reported in full; the seventh, Hartford County, is 99 percent in.

  • ibenmeir

    There are 10 precincts left in Bridgeport, and one in Windsor Locks (an extremely small town). This adds up to a total of about 25,000 remaining ballots, as not all precincts are the same size. Given the rate at which Bridgeport is supporting Malloy, this means Malloy finishes the race with a lead of roughly 3,000 votes. Nothing to see here, folks.

  • MikeB

    Bridgeport turnout was 40,000 in 2008. There are 25,650 votes reported there so far and 10 precincts to go.

  • MJC2211

    ibenmeir and/or MikeB, how could there possibly be 25,000 remaining ballots? Over 25,000 people already voted in Bridgeport in the AP totals. That itself looks greater than or equal to the turnout of the past three gubernatorial elections in Bridgeport. Another 25,000 would mean over 70% turnout, which would be quite a lot considering past voting history.

    I could see Malloy winning if there are other precincts left out, or if AP’s tally is wrong. But if AP’s tally is correct and the only vote left is from Bridgeport, I don’t see where Malloy overcomes the 8k vote lead.

  • RTA

    Yes, MikeB, but turnout is always substantially lower in midterms than Presidential years. For example Bridgeport cast about 37,000 votes in 2004 but only 20,700 in 2006. It would be shocking to say the least to see Bridgeport turnout this year approximate that of 2008.

  • MJC2211

    Actually, it looks like AP’s tally for New Haven is very strange.

    They claim that with 100% of the vote of New Haven in, there were only 9000 total votes (going 82%-17% for Malloy). But that doesn’t make much sense; in 2006 there were nearly 25,000 votes for governor, and in 2002 there were over 21,000 votes. If turnout matched 2006 in New Haven and the margin holds, Malloy would easily win the race (even without more votes in Bridgeport).

  • StepjenReal

    This were I would cue Patsy Kline to take the stage
    hit it Patsy!

    “I’m crazy
    crazy for feeling so lonely
    I’m crazy crazy for feeling so blue
    I knew that you’d love me
    as long as you wanted

    And then some day
    you’d leave me for somebody new
    Why do I let myself worry?
    Wondering what in the world did I do?

    I’m crazy for thinking that my love
    could hold you
    I’m crazy for trying
    and crazy for crying
    and I’m crazy for loving you!”

  • RTA

    The AP tally for Bridgeport isn’t much less perplexing. As noted above over 25,000 votes have already been counted there with 10 of 25 precincts yet to report. Now, 25,000 votes would be a very impressive turnout for all of Bridgeport in a midterm election. It seems almost impossible that this figure represents only 60% of all votes cast there. So what is going on with the remaining ten precincts? Has the AP simply forgotten to update the precinct numbers?

    The New Haven figures on the other hand do not appear to have been updated since early this morning, yet the precincts show 35/35 reporting, even though the numbers are obviously only a fraction of the total votes cast as MJC notes. The error has been there for hours, plain to anyone looking at the returns. It’s difficult to believe that the AP would retract its call without catching it. Again, very odd.

  • MJC2211

    Yeah, the AP totals are not accurate. According to this article

    Malloy leads in New Haven (21,108 to 3,500). If you substitute that in for AP’s incomplete count, you get Malloy 557,349 to Foley’s 554,027, which is about a 3,000 lead for Malloy statewide.

  • RTA

    Also from the site I am looking at it appears the independent, Marsh, received zero votes so far in Bridgeport — judging by the overall numbers that seems very improbable. In Stratford for example just to the east with many fewer votes cast he received 204. It may just have been an oversight but it doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in the reported figures.