HANOVER, N.H., 10:49 a.m. — Today, Senator Barack Obama broke my heart.
Yesterday, at a rally for former Senator John Edwards in Hampton, N.H., I noticed that when the traveling press pool arrived, they quickly headed to a computer lab designated as the workspace for the media. When Edwards took the stage at the rally, only one or two reporters emerged. Most stayed in the room, rapping on their laptops as Edwards spoke to the crowd.
Peculiar, I thought. Old political reporters always talk about the torture of listening to the same stump speech over and over, but, still. If you’re covering Edwards, you’re covering Edwards.
GERMANTOWN, Tenn., 11:13 a.m. — Hillary Clinton is struggling to lock in the votes of a demographic that American may have once thought was a given — women, especially the younger ones.
CNN reported this morning that in their latest New Hampshire polls, Clinton trails Barack Obama by two percentage points among women in the state.
Why is Clinton losing her female following? Turns out it’s another generation gap. Younger women, who have not personally experienced discrimination because of their sex, don’t see the importance and urgency of electing a women president this time around, CNN reports. They’re convinced if it doesn’t happen this time, then it will in four years, or even eight.
And some older women are simply turned off by the idea of a woman in such a “nontraditional” role. Instead, they see promise in Obama’s relationship-oriented, coalition-building message, rather than Clinton’s experience and assertiveness. While some women do admire her for her strength, more want to see a more spontaneous, candid, emotional Clinton.
So how will Hillary’s aggressiveness be viewed among New Hampshire’s women? We’ll see in about nine hours.
The comedian Larry David, left, with Arianna Huffington, right, at Senator Barack Obama’s rally at Dartmouth College on Tuesday morning.
HANOVER, N.H., 10:08 a.m. — During Senator Barack Obama’s speech to students this morning, a student in the middle of the crowd suddenly collapsed, bringing the excited rally to a startling halt.
Obama noticed immediately and stopped his speech while paramedics tended to the student. The rally was delayed for 20 minutes until the student was carried out of the gymnasium here.
Moments later, the comedian Larry David — who is stumping in New Hampshire for Obama — emerged from the back of the room and pushed up to the crowd. “Sinatra used to have that effect on people!” he yelled.
The fifth in a series of spin room interviews following this weekend’s debates.
MANCHESTER, N.H., 3:01 a.m. — In his campaigning, Barack Obama worked hard to attract independent voters, hoping to charm them into coming out and supporting him at the caucuses. Then, last Thursday came, and the independents heeded Obama’s message. Voter turnout spiked, and Obama won in a landslide victory.
David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, looked brilliant. But will the same strategy work today in New Hampshire, where Senator John McCain has historically been the darling of many Granite State independents?
Axelrod thinks so.
“From what we seen, this is not like 2000,” he told reporters this weekend. “I don’t think that independents in New Hampshire are all that eager to vote in the Republican primary. I don’t think that’s how they think they’re going to get the biggest change here.” (more…)
The fourth in a series of spin room interviews following this weekend’s debates.
MANCHESTER, N.H., 1:55 a.m. — A few months ago, Hillary Clinton LAW ’73 was the “inevitable” candidate.
Not anymore. And that puts Mark Penn, her chief strategist, in a precarious position.
But fret not, Penn says. Speaking to reporters this weekend, he offered nothing but confidence in Clinton’s prospects, even as polls place Iowa caucus winner Barack Obama far ahead among New Hampshire voters.
Just look at Obama’s record, he said. Then see whether he speaks for change. (more…)
The third in a series of spin room interviews following this weekend’s debates.
MANCHESTER, N.H. 1:40 a.m. — John Edwards may seem like the third wheel in the Democratic showdown between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton LAW ’73. But even so, that’s no reason to give up, says his wife, Elizabeth.
“John is in this race to the convention,” she told reporters this weekend, shooting down rumors that his campaign could fold in the coming weeks if he cannot break into the Obama-Clinton pantheon.
Why? Simple, Edwards said.
“His message is important enough,” she said.
But that doesn’t mean getting that message out has been easy. (more…)
MANCHESTER, N.H., 9:25 p.m. — Senator Hillary Clinton LAW ’73 is in trouble. Can she save her candidacy with this massive rally this evening? We’ll see. Our live blog is below.
10:45 p.m. | About half the crowd is still here, and the music is still blaring. Check back later tonight for an analysis of Hillary’s speech. At least compared to yesterday, it was a whole new Hillary.
10:31 p.m. | The Clinton campaign estimate the attendance tonight at over 4,000.
10:12 p.m. | To Bill Clinton: as a former president, how does it feel to be reduced to a stage prop?
10:10 p.m. | “We can make history,” she says, and thanks the crowd. “Takin’ Care of Business” booms.
10:09 p.m. | Here we go. “So I’m asking for your help.” The crowd chants: “Go, Hillary, Go!” Then, “Hillary, Hillary, Hillary!”
10:08 p.m. | “We want to reclaim the future for our children and our young people,” Hillary says. A bit of John Edwards is shining through in this speech. Lots of talk about the hard-working middle class.
10:06 p.m. | Another pseudo-celebrity sighting: Judy Woodruff of PBS.
10:03 p.m. | Now we’re onto Iraq. A lot of Bush-bashing in this speech. No-bid contracts, etc.
10:01 p.m. | “I think it takes strength and experience to make the changes that we need in America.” The crowd applauds.
10:00 p.m. | CHANGE! As a senator, Hillary says, “You have to produce positive change.”
9:59 p.m. | Hillary: “There are those that are running who act like they can just make Washington disappear. They can order everybody, ‘Act right, be nice’.” The crowd laughs mischievously.
9:57 p.m. | Hillary is rolling through her domestic-issues platform. The crowd keeps insisting on cheering. Honestly, it’s getting irritating.
9:47 p.m. | The loudest cheer of the night: Hillary promises a balanced budget and a surplus. Still, at least rhetorically, this speech is relatively “change”-free thus far.
9:45 p.m. | Pseudo-celebrity sighting (I think): Matt Bai, chief political writer for The New York Times Magazine. Also, Chris Matthews is here.
9:44 p.m. | Hillary is attacking Bush for governing with fear. With this crowd, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. “Since when did America become the ‘can’t do’ nation?” she asks.
9:42 p.m. | She says she’s running for president because she “loves this country.” As opposed to the other candidates, who are running because they don’t hate this country?
9:40 p.m. | Hillary is talking about “getting our country back on track.” She says: “I know what it will take.” Then, someone cuts her off and screams, “A woman.” The crowd goes crazy.
9:39 p.m. | Our first “change” of the night.
9:38 p.m. | A TV reporter for a foreign station is reporting live from right in front of me. He’s just standing.
9:36 p.m. | Those rhetorical questions definitely did not deserve a speech-interrupting “Hillary, Hillary, Hillary” chant.
9:34 p.m. | “Are you ready to have a president who is ready to go into the Oval Office on day one and start making tough decisions?” Clinton asks. She keeps asking these sorts of questions — “Are you ready to have a president … ?” — and each time, the crowd goes crazy.
9:33 p.m. | Bill is here! Everyone is so excited!
9:32 p.m | Clinton has arrived. Chelsea has, too; the crowd is chanting her name.
9:28 p.m. | Don’t worry — we’ll keep track of the number of times she says “change.” I’m assuming we’ll hear the Obama-assailing “That’s not change” refrain that she debuted yesterday.
9:26 p.m. | The crowd is being led in a chant of H-I-L-L-A-R-Y, letter by letter. They seem enthusiastic. I wonder: Have they seen a poll in the last week?
MANCHESTER, N.H., 9:16 p.m. — At Senator Barack Obama’s rally at the Palace Theater yesterday, I recalled how the Secret Service ordered me to allow their bomb-sniffing dog to inspect my digital camera for fear that it might be something I could disassemble and fashion into a Howitzer. Convenient or not, everyone’s camera, bag, tripod, etc. had to be cleared by the dog before we could enter the theater.
But at Hillary Clinton’s LAW ’73 rally yesterday at a school in Hampton, N.H., there was no security checking bags, etc. And tonight — with both Hillary and Bill Clinton LAW ’73in attendence — there was no extra security, either. No one cared about my camera, or my bag, or anything.
What does that say about the level of concern for Senator Obama’s safety as he attempts to become America’s first African-American president?
MUNCIE, Indiana, 7:45 p.m. — Today was exhausting (*wipes forehead*). Doing nothing is indeed hard work…and now I sound like a politician…but onward, ho…
Minutes ago, I decided to search for a summer job. (YIKES!) I opened up Firefox, and the main page of Berliner Morgenpost, a first-tier German newspaper, popped up. Yes, it’s my homepage. I like being different.
I intended to go straight on to Google, but I noticed a picture in the top left corner: a man in silhouette in front of an American flag. The name “Barack Obama” accompanied the photograph.
Being the curious young lad I am, I clicked on the photo. Seconds later, I was looking at Senator Obama giving a speech, or answering a question, or doing whatever else presidential candidates do.
That was one picture. There were 13 more.
The 14 photographs ranged across Obama’s life: the young Barack with his father; Obama’s parents, together (sidenote: Obama’s parents divorced in his youth); Obama’s high-school class in Hawaii; Obama’s senior-year high-school yearbook; Obama teaching law at the University of Chicago; and it goes on.
The captions for the pictures are equally interesting. The caption accompanying photograph 13 in the series, which shows Obama dancing with wife Michelle, tranlates to, “He is popular and has a good chance to become the Democratic presidential candidate…”
Obama is international news. Media outlets around the globe recognize Obama’s momentum and its implications for them come Jan. 20, 2009. Despite international discontent with U.S. foreign policy and leadership over the past several years, the president of the United States remains the most influential head of state in the modern world.
The next president’s policies will have international repercussions. People the world over are watching to see what those policies could mean for them.
News organizations in the People’s Republic of China are closely following developments in the U.S. presidential race. People’s Daily, based in Beijing, has scores of online articles devoted to the race. The most recent carries the title, “Obama, Clinton in dead heat.” It is dated today, Jan. 7.
People everywhere care who wins. Right now, they care about Barack.
NORMAN, Okla., 5:50 p.m. — Considering what many voters perceive as the often disingenuous, self-interested and intricate nature of modern political campaigns, it is no surprise that game theorists — those who study strategic interactions between agents — have turned to American politics as a field ripe with opportunities for analysis.
Yale’s own Justin Fox, a professor in the Political Science Department, applies microeconomics to his study of the interactions between politicians and voter behavior. In a phone interview with the News on Monday, he illuminated some of the more interesting applications of game theory in the current campaign season.
Fox started by explaining the role of fundraising and interest groups in politicians’ stands on major issues. A typical academic paper may explain how politicians find it in their interest to alter their positions in order to attract more money, he said.
“There may not be any explicit corruption going on, but … the fundraising is distorting how politicians behave,” Fox said.
So, according to game theory, it is demonstrably rational to alter one’s behavior in order to bring in more money. But what role does public opinion play? What about politicians like Mitt Romney, who has been accused of changing his positions to make himself more palatable to the Republican electorate?
“I think people see through it, right? I think that’s why he has trouble getting traction —it’s too obvious,” Fox said. “Giuliani’s sort of doing the same thing, but I think it looks less artificial. I don’t think there’s any good data on whether public opinion is a stronger determinant of a candidate’s position than the ability to raise campaign funds. Candidates are going to face tradeoffs when balancing these two goals.”
WEST CALDWELL, N.J., 2:30 p.m. — New Haven Mayor John DeStefano Jr. has just endorsed Barack Obama for president, according to a 2 p.m. City Hall press release.
“Senator Obama is bringing a whole new generation of voters into the national debate regarding America’s future,” DeStefano, who had endorsed Conn. Senator Chris Dodd prior to his leaving the race last week, said in the statement. “I believe in his message that aims toward optimism, not partisanship.”
Added the eight-term mayor, “He’d be an absolutely dynamic partner for places like New Haven and the rest of the nation.”
John DeStefano with Ward 20 Alderman Charles Blango.
