
Ericka Henriquez
Last year, my best friend and I decided to watch every single Oscar-nominated movie. And I don’t mean casually watching a few Best Picture contenders — I mean complete immersion. We watched YouTube analysis videos, ate way too much popcorn, debated the nominations like presumptuous critics and even hosted an Oscars night for our parents, complete with ballots, themed snacks and dramatic winner reveals. (We got every single prediction right, by the way, which only made us more insufferable.) Naturally, when the 2025 nominations dropped, I went right back into deep-dive mode.
This year, in my home country, Brazil, things have been crazy since Fernanda Torres won the Golden Globe for “I’m Still Here.” We are in full “World Cup state” about her Oscar nomination — family group chats are buzzing, Twitter is flooded with memes and heartfelt fan edits and it’s the kind of topic you can overhear discussed in any bar. But this moment is about more than national pride or recognition of Brazilian cinema. “I’m Still Here” is a politically urgent film given the rise of the far right in Brazil and worldwide. A win for Torres wouldn’t just be historic — it would be a statement.
I went deep into YouTube breakdowns and listened to way too many film podcasts. Here’s where I stand in this year’s biggest categories.
Best Picture
Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Wicked,” “Emilia Perez”
My prediction: “The Brutalist”
This is the kind of film the Academy eats up — massive scope, ambitious storytelling and a prestige cast delivering powerful performances. It has also dominated technical categories, which usually signals strong overall support.
That being said, “A Complete Unknown” is a real contender. It checks all the “biopic” boxes that Oscar voters love, and Timothée Chalamet’s lead performance has kept the film in constant conversation. “Conclave” is another dark horse, considering its strong screenplay and Ralph Fiennes’ buzz.
The Academy has a long history of playing it safe — rewarding the prestige dramas, the sweeping biopics, the sentimental ‘Oscar-bait’ films. But every so often, they break their own pattern and pick something that actually pushes cinema forward. The question this year is: will they reward ambition, or will they default to familiarity?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Perez,” “Nickel Boys,” “Sing Sing”
My prediction: “Conclave”
This category feels like a straightforward call. “Conclave” is a tightly written, dialogue-driven film that’s both engaging and incredibly well-crafted. It’s the kind of screenplay that voters can’t resist. Personally, I’m not an action movie fan, but I do agree “Conclave” deserves this Oscar.
“Sing Sing”’s is a feel-good story for indie cinema, and “Emilia Perez” brings its musical flair into the mix, but neither feels poised to take down “Conclave.”
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Real Pain,” “September 5,” “The Substance”
My prediction: “Anora”
This one’s a slam dunk. Sean Baker’s script is original, sharp and emotionally resonant — the trifecta for this category.
There’s been some buzz around “The Brutalist” and “The Substance,” but neither has the same momentum. “Anora” stands out for its freshness and ability to leave a lasting impression, which is exactly what this category tends to reward.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Yura Borisov (“Anora”), Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)
My prediction: Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
Kieran Culkin is dominating this category for good reason — his performance balances humor and raw vulnerability in a way few can pull off. He’s the clear frontrunner here.
Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) is an interesting wildcard. His performance has drawn praise from critics, and if there’s an upset, it’s likely coming from him.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”)
My prediction: Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”)
Zoe Saldana has swept through most of the precursor awards, making her the undeniable favorite. Her role in Emilia Perez is layered, emotional and perfectly tailored for this category.
Ariana Grande could sneak in as a challenger — her nomination signals a major shift in how the Academy views performers crossing over from music to film. Monica Barbaro also deserves a nod for her subtle brilliance in “A Complete Unknown,” but this feels like Saldana’s year.
Best Actor
Nominees: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Coleman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
My prediction: Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”)
This is shaping up to be Chalamet’s year. His portrayal of Bob Dylan is transformative, and voters love nothing more than a chameleonic performance that brings a real-life figure to life. If you’ve seen his SNL episode, you know even he’s in on the joke about how often he’s been nominated without winning — it’s becoming a bit of a DiCaprio situation. Maybe this is finally the one that breaks the streak.
If there’s one thing the Academy loves, it’s a good biopic performance. Transformation is their favorite word — give them weight loss, an accent or a ‘completely unrecognizable’ method performance, and they’re all in. Chalamet, with his eerily precise Dylan impression, is exactly their type.
Adrien Brody is an undeniable force in “The Brutalist,” and if the film dominates, he could ride its wave. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) is the longshot, but his understated performance shouldn’t be completely discounted.
Best Actress
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”), Carla Sophia Gasone (“Emilia Perez”), Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
My prediction: Demi Moore (“The Substance”)
Demi Moore’s transformative role in “The Substance” is classic Oscar territory — gritty, physical and completely against type. But what really makes her a frontrunner is the Hollywood comeback narrative attached to it. Once the highest-paid actress of the ’90s, Moore dominated the industry with films like “Ghost” and “A Few Good Men,” only to face the brutal double standard that often sidelines women in Hollywood as they age. Now, after years of being underestimated, she’s back with a performance that reminds everyone why she was a star to begin with. And the Academy loves a redemption arc.
But Fernanda Torres has a real shot. Her performance in “I’m Still Here” is deeply personal and politically resonant, and her nomination alone is a landmark moment for Brazilian cinema. A win here would carry enormous significance — not just for Torres, but for the stories of resistance and resilience that the film so powerfully portrays.
Though, the Academy is notoriously bad at recognizing international performances in acting categories. They love a foreign film in Best Picture (“Parasite,” “Roma”) but almost never let those performances break through. Fernanda Torres winning would be groundbreaking — but history suggests the Academy might not be ready to actually make that leap. As a Brazilian, I’m hoping they are!
Best Director
Nominees: Sean Baker (“Anora”), Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”)
My prediction: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
Corbet’s direction in “The Brutalist” is everything the Academy loves — ambitious, visually stunning and deeply personal. His control over the film’s sprawling narrative makes him the one to beat.
Coralie Fargeat’s nomination for “The Substance” is one of the most exciting surprises this year. Her fearless, boundary-pushing approach is exactly what Hollywood needs more of. If there’s a major upset, it could be her.
It’s always fun when the Academy pretends to be adventurous by nominating a genre film in a major category — only to completely ignore it when it comes to actually handing out awards. Coralie Fargeat’s nomination for “The Substance” is thrilling, but let’s be real: they’ll never let a bold, body-horror film win. And that’s their loss.
Predicting the Oscars is a mix of strategy, gut instinct and accepting that sometimes, the Academy will do something completely unhinged. This year’s race is fascinating because there are clear frontrunners but enough uncertainty to keep things interesting.
Whatever happens, I’ll be watching — yelling at the screen, second-guessing my predictions and already planning for next year’s Oscar marathon.