As the Nobel committee prepares to announce the winners of the 2012 prize in economics, Thomson Reuters has released a set of predictions — and, surprise!, star economics professor Robert Shiller is on the list.
Shiller was named one of four academics likely to receive the economics prize this year or in the future. The list described Shiller as a probably candidate for his research into market volatility and the danger of housing market bubbles. His bestselling 2000 book, Irrational Exuberance, predicted that the American real estate bubble could soon burst. As we know, that happened in 2008. Other potential winners, according to Thomson Reuters, are Stephen Ross from MIT, Angus Deaton from Princeton and Sir Anthony Atkinson from Oxford.
Thomson Reuters compiles their annual list by poring through citations of scholarly research. The specific details of their methodology, however, were not described.
“Our Citation Laureate selection process operates much like the Nobel Foundation’s selection process,” David Pendlebury, Thomson Reuters citation analyst, said in the Reuters report. “We recognize fundamental discoveries and identify the most important contributors to these discoveries. Our Citation Laureates have made such important contributions to science that we believe them to be peers of the Nobel Prize winners in every way; they simply have yet to win.”
The Nobel Prize announcements will begin Oct. 8, with the prize in physiology or medicine.