This past Wednesday, the atmospheric augury Punxsutawney Phil peeked his head out of his hole to find a bare, shadowless land. The verdict: an early winter. But before we get our hopes up and pack up our parkas, maybe we should consider just where Phil gets his meteorological know-how. Could there be any logical explanation for this uncanny critter’s prognostication? To find the answer, WEEKEND turned to some of the best and brightest minds in the country: Yale professors. If the likes of Shelly Kagan and Michael Frame can’t explain Groundhog Day, then who can? By Susannah Shattuck. Caroline Tan and Marysa Leya contributed reporting.