Tag Archive: Yale on the Trail: Battlegrounds

  1. New poll: Clinton and Obama tied in New Hampshire

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    MANCHESTER, N.H., 6:23 p.m. — As if it weren’t obvious already, the New Hampshire primary is going to come down to the wire.

    A new poll released minutes ago by CNN and WMUR, a Manchester television station, places Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton LAW’73 in a statistical tie among likely voters in this state, with each garnering 33 percent of the vote.

    The poll was conducted Friday and today following Obama’s decisive win Thursday in the Iowa caucus. On the Republican side, the poll found Senator John McCain leading the pack with 33 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 27 percent, Rudy Giuliani at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee at 11 percent.

    — Thomas Kaplan

  2. Heading to New Hampshire, where a Facebook debate awaits

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    NEW HAVEN, Conn., 9:00 a.m. — The candidates that survived Thursday night’s Iowa caucus have all arrived in New Hampshire, and the News will soon be there, too.

    We will be live from the campus of Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., beginning Saturday evening, with ongoing reports from the site of the primetime presidential debates sponsored by ABC News, WMUR-TV in Manchester and the social networking Web site Facebook. (Yes, that Facebook. We’re not sure what they could possibly have to do with a presidential debate, but we’ll do our best to figure it out and let you know.)

    Charles Gibson will moderate the debates, and we will be here to live-blog them for you. (more…)

  3. Signing off, with reflection, from Iowa

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    INTERSTATE 80, Iowa, 3:30 p.m. – The cameras left today. So, too, did the candidates, in big airplanes that flew north to New Hampshire. Iowans settled back to their lives. In a Country Kitchen off I-80 just west of Des Moines, the talk was once again town gossip – not the candidate haggling heard in a Le Mars Subway just six days ago.

    When all settled in the most heated Iowan primary contest in fifty years, two men — Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee — took home the blue ribbon.

    But they were not the only winners.

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  4. Chuck Laudner, the morning after, on 2008: ‘Year of the new voter’

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    DES MOINES, Iowa, 2:45 p.m. – “It’s like the morning after a party,” Iowa State Republican Party Exectuive Director Chuck Laudner says, surveying the phone banking room that looks like a fraternity ripped through it. “Everyone just picks up and goes home, and we’ve got to clean up.”

    And that’s just what it is: the morning after the biggest party in Iowa caucus history. Laudner – a lifelong Iowan – has been watching and participating in caucuses for decades, and he says he’s never seen anything like this.

    “When the history of this Iowa caucus is written, it will be remembered as the year of the new voter,” Laudner predicts. “You saw 25 to 30 percent of caucus-goers self-identifiying as first-time caucusgoers. It’s all these people who had never voted before so their names weren’t on voter registration lists, or young people who were going to their first caucus.”

    Huckabee works the crowd

    Mike Huckabee works the crowd last night. (YDN)

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  5. Iowa may be misplaced as early indicator

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    DES MOINES, Iowa, 4 a.m. – Iowa holds a special place in American political life. It is routinely the first state in which presidential candidates are tested and chosen, and has been since 1972.

    Iowans seem to regard their civic responsibility with utmost seriousness. They are aware that the eyes of the world are keenly watching them to see who they choose as their candidates for the White House. Many Americans turn to Iowa for guidance in who should be the 44th President of the United States, but perhaps Iowa does not give resonating advice.

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  6. Marmor: Obama, Edwards, Clinton can all reform healthcare system

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    NORMAN, Oklahoma, 10:45 a.m. — I didn’t think I would have a reading assignment while on winter break. Then again, I also hadn’t planned on interviewing Ted Marmor.

    I wanted the School of Management and political science professor’s opinion on the presidential candidates’ positions on healthcare. Marmor, after all, has testified before Congress on healthcare reform, served on President Jimmy Carter’s Commission on the National Agenda and published reams of articles and books on the subject. If anyone is an expert, he is. But first I had to acquaint myself.

    In ‘The Politics of U.S. Health System Reform,’ Marmor traces the history of the impact of politics on healthcare reform, calling it a story of “long-term aspiration and deep frustration.” The main obstacle to reform Marmor emphasizes is the limit of political feasibility: the harsh resistance of Republicans and the lack of commitment of Democrats.

    Having earned my phone interview, Marmor and I spoke early on the Friday morning following the Iowa caucus elections. Are any of the three leading Democratic candidates capable of causing the necessary ideological shift in Washington to substantially reform the U.S. health system?

    “All three of them — Obama and Edwards even more than Clinton,” Marmor says. “Obama and Edwards have a more powerful rhetorical voice on behalf of those people in trouble in America. [Hillary] is a more manipulative, less appealing moral leader.”

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  7. Following dismal Iowa performance, Connecticut’s Dodd bows out

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    NEW HAVEN, Conn., 12:28 a.m. — Connecticut Senator Christopher J. Dodd gave up his long-shot bid for the Democratic nomination for president late Thursday night after a woeful showing hours earlier in the Iowa caucus.

    Dodd, who was widely expected to leave the race if he did not finish fourth or better in the caucus, failed to garner one percent of the vote even after moving his young family to Iowa in the fall to enable him to campaign full-time in the state.

    “Tonight I am withdrawing from the presidential race but let me assure you, we are not ending this race with our heads hanging but with our heads held high,” Dodd told about 100 supporters late Thursday night at a gathering in Des Moines, Iowa.

    “I am not going anywhere,” he added, to loud cheers. “I will be fighting for the United States.”

    (more…)

  8. Emphasizing change, Obama, Huckabee capture Iowa victories

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    WASHINGTON, 9:50 p.m. — Illinois Senator Barack Obama and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee will both leave Iowa and head to New Hampshire tomorrow with the wind at their backs but facing vastly different political terrain as the Granite State’s Jan. 8 primary approaches.

    Obama, riding a wave of support among first-time and college-age caucus-goers that put him over the top Thursday, will hit the stump well positioned to grab a second victory five days from now. Recent polls in the state have shown the senator in the lead or in a statistical tie with New York Senator Hillary Clinton LAW ’73, whose aura of inevitability may erode further if she fails to come out on top.

    By contrast, Huckabee has much ground to make up in New Hampshire, where former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s second-place finish tonight leaves him and Arizona Senator John McCain in a horse race. More libertarian and socially liberal than Iowa and less populated by evangelical Christians — who make up Huckabee’s base — New Hampshire may prove difficult for the former Baptist minister.

    Obama Wins

    Huckabee Wins

    Eric Thayer/Getty Images

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  9. The Iowa Numbers: West Des Moines — Precinct 111

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    WEST DES MOINES, Iowa, 7:32 p.m. — The first round of results are in: Before the critical realignment stage of the Democratic caucus in this precinct, here’s an update from West Des Moines, Precinct 111:

    Joe Biden: 7

    Hillary Clinton: 75

    Chris Dodd: 9

    John Edwards: 49

    Barack Obama: 99

    Bill Richardson: 22

    They tallied 264 caucus-goers in attendance, so I’m missing 3, but you can see the trend here in West Des Moines. The viability threshold of 15% means a candidate must have 40 votes to remain viable. They’re realigning now.

    -Zack Abrahamson

  10. A student revolution: Valley High School for Obama ’08

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    WEST DES MOINES, Iowa, 7:44 PM — Zachary Hayes and Justin Jodoin are seventeen. So are Drew Sorge and Matt Stilwell. All four students turn eighteen before November’s general election and — according to Iowa election law — are eligible to participate in the caucus. And caucus they have, making their political voices heard for the first time.

    Tonight, they stood with Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

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  11. Just a Hobby — Atul Nakhasi and the Iowa Democrats

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    IOWA CITY, Iowa, 4:33 p.m. — “It’s hard to believe it’s all going to be over tomorrow,” says 19-year-old Atul Nakhasi from behind a laptop and scattered piles of paper. He’s trying to figure out in the next two hours how to run a caucus in Iowa’s largest student precinct – precinct 5 of Iowa City. “I’m kind of going to miss it.”

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